Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund vs Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund

The price ratio is currently below its 50-day moving average, indicating XLP has been gaining relative ground recently. The ratio is extended at -9.6% from its 50-day average, suggesting the relative move may be overdue for a pullback. The z-score of -1.46 shows a notable deviation from the long-term average.

Performance is mixed across timeframes, with no clear consistent leader between XLY and XLP. Watch for a breakout in relative momentum.

These two assets have a weak positive long-term correlation of 0.33. The shorter-term correlation has weakened to 0.10, indicating the assets are diverging from their usual relationship — this can present relative-value opportunities.

XLP has a stronger flow score (85/100 vs 38/100), indicating more consistent accumulation pressure. Both assets show net inflow via Chaikin Money Flow (XLP: 0.20, XLY: 0.08), though XLP leads on overall flow score. Both assets are trading on below-average volume, which means current flow readings should be interpreted with caution.

XLP has significantly stronger trend momentum (89/100 vs 31/100), suggesting it is in a more favourable technical position. Risk profiles are comparable (53/100 vs 60/100). Both assets show similar short-term volatility levels. XLY has experienced a deeper maximum drawdown over the past year (18.1% vs 8.5%), indicating higher tail risk. Their low short-term correlation (0.10) means these risk profiles are relatively independent, offering potential diversification benefit.

XLY is currently losing ground against XLP, with the price ratio at 1.32 versus its 50-day average of 1.46. The 200-day z-score of -1.46 is notably extended, suggesting XLP may be stretched relative to XLY. On a flow basis, XLP shows stronger capital accumulation (85 vs 38). XLP carries lower short-term volatility (+14.9% vs +15.1% 21-day), with max drawdowns of -18.1% and -8.5% respectively. With a 63-day correlation of 0.10, these assets move largely independently — offering diversification value. Monitor the ratio trend and flow divergence for early signals of a shift in relative leadership.