VanEck Semiconductor ETF vs Invesco QQQ Trust

The price ratio is currently above its 50-day moving average, indicating SMH has been gaining relative ground recently. The ratio is extended at 6.7% from its 50-day average, suggesting the relative move may be overdue for a pullback. The 200-day z-score of 2.10 signals an extreme deviation — the current ratio is unusually far from its long-term norm. Ratio RSI at 77 is in overbought territory, meaning SMH's relative strength may be stretched.

Performance is mixed — SMH leads over the 63-Day timeframe while QQQ has been stronger in the short term (10-Day). This divergence can signal a momentum shift.

These two assets have a very strong positive long-term correlation of 0.92. The short-term and long-term correlations are closely aligned at 0.85 and 0.92, indicating a stable relationship. High correlation means these assets offer limited diversification benefit when held together.

SMH has a stronger flow score (45/100 vs 30/100), indicating more consistent accumulation pressure. Both assets show net inflow via Chaikin Money Flow (SMH: 0.07, QQQ: 0.05), though SMH leads on overall flow score. Both assets are seeing above-average volume (SMH: 1.7x, QQQ: 1.4x), adding conviction to the flow signals.

SMH has significantly stronger trend momentum (68/100 vs 42/100), suggesting it is in a more favourable technical position. SMH carries a better risk profile (87/100 vs 71/100), with lower overall risk metrics. SMH is 1.9x more volatile than QQQ on a 21-day basis (35.6% vs 18.3%), which means larger price swings in either direction. SMH has experienced a deeper maximum drawdown over the past year (26.2% vs 19.0%), indicating higher tail risk. With a 63-day correlation of 0.85, these assets tend to move together — meaning the risk characteristics above are likely to manifest in tandem.

SMH is currently gaining ground against QQQ, with the price ratio at 0.68 versus its 50-day average of 0.63. The 200-day z-score of 2.10 is historically extreme, suggesting SMH may be stretched relative to QQQ. On a flow basis, SMH shows stronger capital accumulation (45 vs 30). QQQ carries lower short-term volatility (+18.3% vs +35.6% 21-day), with max drawdowns of -26.2% and -19.0% respectively. With a 63-day correlation of 0.85, these assets move closely together — limiting diversification benefit. Monitor the ratio trend and flow divergence for early signals of a shift in relative leadership.