United States Oil Fund · USO
commodityLast updated: February 26, 2026
Capital has been flowing into United States Oil Fund consistently. The Flow & Accumulation Score sits at 86/100, with the 20-day Chaikin Money Flow reading 0.21 — indicating sustained buying pressure over the past month. The trend is firmly bullish — the Trend & Momentum Score reads 82/100 with all major moving averages aligned upward. The Risk Profile Score sits at 41/100, reflecting a mediocre return-to-risk balance.
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Where is money flowing?
VWAP: Above 50d ($74.99) and 200d ($74.40)
Money is flowing aggressively into United States Oil Fund. The Flow & Accumulation Score reads 86/100, placing it in the Strong Accumulation category — the highest level of capital inflow the framework measures. Chaikin Money Flow at 0.21 and On-Balance Volume (flat) provide a mixed picture of flow dynamics. Today's volume is 2.0x the 20-day average — significantly elevated activity that adds weight to the current flow signal.
What is the trend?
| MA Period | Value | Price vs MA | Distance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10-day | 79.09 | Above | +0.9% |
| 21-day | 78.36 | Above | +1.8% |
| 50-day | 73.75 | Above | +8.2% |
| 100-day | 72.31 | Above | +10.3% |
| 200-day | 73.12 | Above | +9.1% |
United States Oil Fund is in a strong, established uptrend. The Trend & Momentum Score reads 82/100 with price above all major moving averages in bullish alignment.
Is momentum building or fading?
Momentum is positive across all timeframes — 10-day (1.1%), 21-day (5.4%), and 63-day (13.3%) rate of change are all in positive territory — though the alignment suggests the pace of gains is stabilising rather than accelerating. RSI at 59 reflects healthy bullish momentum without reaching overbought levels — there is room for further upside before the indicator signals caution. One note of caution: the MACD histogram has turned negative despite positive rate-of-change readings — this can be an early signal that momentum is beginning to roll over.
How extended is this move?
Price sits 8.2% above the 50-day moving average, placing this extension in the 89th percentile of its historical range. The move is moderately extended — not at extremes, but above the typical range. Bollinger Band %B at 0.68 shows price in the upper half of its recent volatility range.
Where are the key levels?
$78.06 – $81.63
$65.52 – $74.05
The strongest support zone is $66 — $74, 13% below current price, where 16 independent signals converge — major swing at $66, double bottom at $66, major swing at $67, double bottom at $68, and 12 other signals. Overhead, a strong resistance cluster at $78 — $82 (1% above) needs to clear — intermediate swing at $80, double top at $81, major swing at $81, SMA-21 at $78, and 1 other signal. The volume profile shows the highest activity around $73 (Point of Control), with the 70% value area spanning $67 to $78.
How does this compare?
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What risk am I taking?
The risk-return profile of United States Oil Fund is mediocre. The Risk Profile Score sits at 41/100 — the return-to-risk trade-off is unremarkable, suggesting caution with position sizing. The 1-year Sortino Ratio of 0.4 is below average — returns have barely compensated for the downside volatility. The largest drawdown over the past year reached -20.4%. Beta of 0.10 indicates very low correlation to the broader market — United States Oil Fund moves largely independently of equity market swings.
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Direction Assessment
Confirmed uptrend with capital inflow
Uptrend without volume support
Capital flowing in, trend not yet established
Downtrend with capital outflow
Average. Standard positioning appropriate.
The combined signal is strong. Both trend (82/100) and flow (86/100) are in positive territory and confirming each other — the asset is trending up with capital backing the move. However, the Risk Profile Score at 41/100 tempers the positive picture. While the trend and flow are aligned, the asset carries significant volatility and drawdown risk — the strength comes with a rough ride.
Conclusion
Across the framework, United States Oil Fund presents a constructive picture with one caveat — the move is extended. Trend, flow, and momentum are aligned, but the distance from key moving averages suggests some consolidation may be due. The most notable signal is the flow data — with a Flow & Accumulation Score of 86/100, strong accumulation is the dominant theme. These scores update daily as new data arrives. Flipside does not predict what happens next — it shows what is happening now, grounded in the data.