United States Copper Index Fund vs SPDR Gold Shares

The price ratio is currently below its 50-day moving average, indicating GLD has been gaining relative ground recently. The ratio is extended at -6.2% from its 50-day average, suggesting the relative move may be overdue for a pullback. The z-score of -1.28 shows a notable deviation from the long-term average.

Performance is mixed across timeframes, with no clear consistent leader between CPER and GLD. Watch for a breakout in relative momentum.

These two assets have a weak positive long-term correlation of 0.41. The shorter-term correlation has strengthened to 0.63, suggesting the assets are moving more in sync recently than their long-term pattern.

CPER has a stronger flow score (63/100 vs 50/100), indicating more consistent accumulation pressure. Both assets show net inflow via Chaikin Money Flow (CPER: 0.08, GLD: 0.07), though CPER leads on overall flow score. Both assets are trading on below-average volume, which means current flow readings should be interpreted with caution.

Both assets show similar trend momentum (73/100 vs 67/100), indicating neither has a clear directional edge. GLD carries a better risk profile (86/100 vs 57/100), with lower overall risk metrics. GLD is 1.3x more volatile than CPER on a 21-day basis (57.1% vs 42.8%), which means larger price swings in either direction. CPER has experienced a deeper maximum drawdown over the past year (24.8% vs 13.9%), indicating higher tail risk.

CPER is currently losing ground against GLD, with the price ratio at 0.08 versus its 50-day average of 0.08. The 200-day z-score of -1.28 is notably extended, suggesting GLD may be stretched relative to CPER. On a flow basis, CPER shows stronger capital accumulation (63 vs 50). CPER carries lower short-term volatility (+42.8% vs +57.1% 21-day), with max drawdowns of -24.8% and -13.9% respectively. With a 63-day correlation of 0.63, these assets show moderate co-movement — limiting diversification benefit. Monitor the ratio trend and flow divergence for early signals of a shift in relative leadership.