SPDR Gold Shares vs SPDR S&P 500 ETF

The price ratio is currently above its 50-day moving average, indicating GLD has been gaining relative ground recently. The ratio is extended at 9.0% from its 50-day average, suggesting the relative move may be overdue for a pullback. The 200-day z-score of 2.39 signals an extreme deviation — the current ratio is unusually far from its long-term norm.

GLD has outperformed SPY across all timeframes — by +22.2% over the past quarter. The trend of outperformance is steady based on whether the gap widens from 63-day to 21-day to 10-day.

These two assets have a near-zero long-term correlation of 0.03. The short-term and long-term correlations are closely aligned at 0.12 and 0.03, indicating a stable relationship. Low correlation suggests these assets can provide meaningful diversification in a portfolio.

SPY has a stronger flow score (50/100 vs 50/100), indicating more consistent accumulation pressure. Both assets show net inflow via Chaikin Money Flow (SPY: 0.10, GLD: 0.07), though SPY leads on overall flow score.

Both assets show similar trend momentum (67/100 vs 60/100), indicating neither has a clear directional edge. GLD carries a better risk profile (86/100 vs 71/100), with lower overall risk metrics. GLD is 4.5x more volatile than SPY on a 21-day basis (57.1% vs 12.6%), which means larger price swings in either direction. Their low short-term correlation (0.12) means these risk profiles are relatively independent, offering potential diversification benefit.

GLD is currently gaining ground against SPY, with the price ratio at 0.69 versus its 50-day average of 0.64. The 200-day z-score of 2.39 is historically extreme, suggesting GLD may be stretched relative to SPY. On a flow basis, SPY shows stronger capital accumulation (50 vs 50). SPY carries lower short-term volatility (+12.6% vs +57.1% 21-day), with max drawdowns of -13.9% and -16.2% respectively. With a 63-day correlation of 0.12, these assets move largely independently — offering diversification value. Monitor the ratio trend and flow divergence for early signals of a shift in relative leadership.