Technical Analysis
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Microsoft Got the Same Alert as Google. The Data Says Something Very Different.
MSFT triggered an extreme reading on March 25 — extension at the 5th percentile, momentum at the 14th. But unlike Google's calm compression (vol at 30th), Microsoft's volatility sits at the 70th percentile, and its risk profile score has collapsed to 13 out of 100. The 24 prior observations matching this profile produced a 14% hit rate at 63 days with a median return of -5.5%. Microsoft's good oversold setups historically come with low volatility — and we're nowhere near that.
Google Is the Cheapest Its Been in a Year. The Last Two Times This Happened Tell Very Different Stories.
GOOGL hit an extreme percentile reading on March 24 — extension at the 13th percentile, momentum at the 14th, with flow still holding at the 33rd and volatility calm at the 30th. This specific profile — oversold on extension and momentum, flow not yet collapsed, volatility low — has occurred only 6 times since 2021 in Google's history. The calm oversold episodes produced dramatically different outcomes depending on whether they occurred during a bottoming process or mid-decline. The current setup has a risk profile score of 91 — the highest of any episode — suggesting something fundamentally different about this pullback.
Tesla Looks Cheap. The Data Says Be Careful.
Tesla is showing a quiet breakdown pattern — low extension, low momentum, and critically low volatility (17th percentile). We tested every similar episode since 2021 and found this specific combination has produced a 0% hit rate and median -28% return at 63 days. The current bounce from $368 to $381 matches the early stages of two prior episodes that led to devastating declines. Volatile crashes recover; quiet breakdowns don't.
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