United States Natural Gas Fund · UNG
commodityLast updated: February 26, 2026
Capital has been gradually leaving United States Natural Gas Fund. The Flow & Accumulation Score sits at 27/100, with Chaikin Money Flow at 0.01 indicating net selling pressure over the past 20 trading days. The trend is under pressure, with the Trend & Momentum Score at 23/100, indicating a developing downtrend. The Risk Profile Score at 7/100 flags that the return does not currently compensate for the volatility and drawdown risk involved.
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Where is money flowing?
VWAP: Below 50d ($12.67) and 200d ($13.43)
Capital is leaving United States Natural Gas Fund. The Flow & Accumulation Score reads 27/100, indicating distribution — selling pressure is outweighing buying pressure over the measurement period. The 20-day Chaikin Money Flow reads 0.01, marginally positive over the measurement period.
What is the trend?
| MA Period | Value | Price vs MA | Distance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10-day | 11.86 | Below | -4.1% |
| 21-day | 12.75 | Below | -10.7% |
| 50-day | 12.44 | Below | -8.6% |
| 100-day | 13.07 | Below | -12.9% |
| 200-day | 13.79 | Below | -17.5% |
The trend in United States Natural Gas Fund is negative. The Trend & Momentum Score reads 23/100, with price below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages — the intermediate trend structure has broken down.
Is momentum building or fading?
Momentum is negative across all timeframes — 10-day (-7.6%), 21-day (-22.6%), and 63-day (-21.0%) — though the rate of decline may be moderating. RSI at 41 reflects bearish momentum, though not yet at extreme levels — selling pressure is present but has not reached exhaustion. The MACD histogram is negative, reinforcing the bearish momentum signal across all timeframes.
How extended is this move?
Price is 8.6% below the 50-day moving average (34th percentile of its historical range). Bollinger Band %B at 0.26 shows price in the lower half of its recent volatility range. Bollinger Bandwidth at 0.421 shows expanded volatility — the asset is making larger-than-normal moves. High bandwidth typically follows a breakout or breakdown and can persist during trending moves.
Where are the key levels?
$11.76 – $16.26
$9.78 – $10.12
The nearest support reference is $9.8 — $10, 13% below — major swing at $9.95. Overhead, a strong resistance cluster at $12 — $16 (25% above) needs to clear — double top at $14, major swing at $14, double top at $14, major swing at $15, and 12 other signals. The volume profile shows the highest activity around $13 (Point of Control), with the 70% value area spanning $11 to $15. The 52-week high at $24 sits 114% above, with price at the 10% mark of its annual range.
How does this compare?
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What risk am I taking?
The risk profile of United States Natural Gas Fund is concerning. The Risk Profile Score sits at just 7/100 — severe downside risk with little return to show for it. Position sizing should be minimal regardless of trend strength. The 1-year Sortino Ratio is negative (-1.0) — the asset has lost money on a risk-adjusted basis over the past year. Maximum drawdown hit -57.0%, and the loss profile is unfavourable. Beta of -0.02 indicates very low correlation to the broader market — United States Natural Gas Fund moves largely independently of equity market swings.
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Direction Assessment
Confirmed uptrend with capital inflow
Uptrend without volume support
Capital flowing in, trend not yet established
Downtrend with capital outflow
High risk, poor compensation. Standard positioning appropriate.
The combined signal is weak. Both trend (23/100) and flow (27/100) confirm bearish conditions — the asset is trending down with capital leaving. The Risk Profile Score at 7/100 compounds the concern — weak trend, weak flow, and unfavourable risk metrics.
Conclusion
Across the framework, United States Natural Gas Fund is in a weak position. Trend, flow, and momentum are aligned to the downside — the data does not currently support a bullish stance. The risk profile is the standout — at 7/100, the poor return-to-risk trade-off is the most defining characteristic for sizing decisions. These scores update daily as new data arrives. Flipside does not predict what happens next — it shows what is happening now, grounded in the data.