EQUITYCRYPTO

    Coinbase Global Inc. vs Bitcoin

    COIN / BTC-USD

    Coinbase equity vs Bitcoin — exchange proxy premium or discount

    Last updated: February 26, 2026

    COIN is gaining ground against BTC-USD with a price ratio of 0.00. The ratio's z-score of -0.47 is within normal range. The two assets are currently highly correlated (63-day: 0.74).

    COIN Flow
    43/100Neutral
    BTC-USD Flow
    58/100Neutral

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    Relative Performance

    Price Ratio
    0.00Above 50d average
    50d / 200d SMA: 0.00 / 0.00
    Ratio vs 50d MA
    +4.0%Near average
    Z-Score (200d)
    -0.47Normal range
    Ratio RSI (14)
    62Neutral

    The price ratio is currently above its 50-day moving average, indicating COIN has been gaining relative ground recently. The ratio is near its 50-day average, suggesting no significant relative extension. The z-score of -0.47 indicates the ratio is within its normal historical range.

    Performance Comparison

    TimeframeCOINBTC-USDLeader
    10-Day+18.2%-0.3%COIN
    21-Day-14.1%+8.7%BTC-USD
    63-Day-29.3%-21.9%BTC-USD

    Performance is mixed — BTC-USD leads over the 63-Day timeframe while COIN has been stronger in the short term (10-Day). This divergence can signal a momentum shift.

    Correlation

    63-Day Correlation
    0.74Moderate positive
    252-Day Correlation
    0.62Moderate positive

    These two assets have a moderate positive long-term correlation of 0.62. The short-term and long-term correlations are closely aligned at 0.74 and 0.62, indicating a stable relationship.

    Money Flow Comparison

    COIN

    Flow Score
    4343/100
    CMF (20d)
    0.03Net inflow
    Relative Volume
    0.81×Normal

    BTC-USD

    Flow Score
    5858/100
    CMF (20d)
    -0.17Net outflow
    Relative Volume
    1.27×Above average

    BTC-USD has a stronger flow score (58/100 vs 43/100), indicating more consistent accumulation pressure. However, Chaikin Money Flow tells a different story — BTC-USD shows net outflow (-0.17) despite its higher flow score, suggesting the capital picture is more nuanced. BTC-USD is seeing above-average volume (1.3x), adding conviction to its flow signal.

    Trend & Risk

    COIN

    Trend
    35/100Downtrend
    Risk
    35/100Elevated risk

    BTC-USD

    Trend
    34/100Downtrend
    Risk
    14/100High risk, poor compensation
    MetricCOINBTC-USDAdvantage
    Volatility (21d)+113.1%+53.2%BTC-USD
    Max Drawdown (1Y)-66.4%-49.7%BTC-USD
    Beta1.06
    Correlation (63d)0.74

    Both assets show similar trend momentum (35/100 vs 34/100), indicating neither has a clear directional edge. COIN carries a better risk profile (35/100 vs 14/100), with lower overall risk metrics. COIN is 2.1x more volatile than BTC-USD on a 21-day basis (113.1% vs 53.2%), which means larger price swings in either direction. COIN has experienced a deeper maximum drawdown over the past year (66.4% vs 49.7%), indicating higher tail risk.

    Direction Assessment

    COIN

    STRONG

    Uptrend + capital inflow

    WARNING

    Uptrend, weak flow

    EMERGING

    Flow in, no trend yet

    WEAK

    Downtrend + outflow

    Risk Profile35/100

    Elevated risk

    BTC-USD

    STRONG

    Uptrend + capital inflow

    WARNING

    Uptrend, weak flow

    EMERGING

    Flow in, no trend yet

    WEAK

    Downtrend + outflow

    Risk Profile14/100

    High risk, poor compensation

    Putting It Together

    COIN is currently gaining ground against BTC-USD, with the price ratio at 0.00 versus its 50-day average of 0.00. The 200-day z-score of -0.47 is within normal bounds, suggesting BTC-USD may be stretched relative to COIN. On a flow basis, BTC-USD shows stronger capital accumulation (58 vs 43). BTC-USD carries lower short-term volatility (+53.2% vs +113.1% 21-day), with max drawdowns of -66.4% and -49.7% respectively. With a 63-day correlation of 0.74, these assets move closely together — limiting diversification benefit. Monitor the ratio trend and flow divergence for early signals of a shift in relative leadership.

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