Coinbase Global Inc. vs Bitcoin
COIN / BTC-USD
Coinbase equity vs Bitcoin — exchange proxy premium or discount
Last updated: February 26, 2026
COIN is gaining ground against BTC-USD with a price ratio of 0.00. The ratio's z-score of -0.47 is within normal range. The two assets are currently highly correlated (63-day: 0.74).
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Relative Performance
The price ratio is currently above its 50-day moving average, indicating COIN has been gaining relative ground recently. The ratio is near its 50-day average, suggesting no significant relative extension. The z-score of -0.47 indicates the ratio is within its normal historical range.
Performance Comparison
| Timeframe | COIN | BTC-USD | Leader |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10-Day | +18.2% | -0.3% | COIN |
| 21-Day | -14.1% | +8.7% | BTC-USD |
| 63-Day | -29.3% | -21.9% | BTC-USD |
Performance is mixed — BTC-USD leads over the 63-Day timeframe while COIN has been stronger in the short term (10-Day). This divergence can signal a momentum shift.
Correlation
These two assets have a moderate positive long-term correlation of 0.62. The short-term and long-term correlations are closely aligned at 0.74 and 0.62, indicating a stable relationship.
Money Flow Comparison
COIN
BTC-USD
BTC-USD has a stronger flow score (58/100 vs 43/100), indicating more consistent accumulation pressure. However, Chaikin Money Flow tells a different story — BTC-USD shows net outflow (-0.17) despite its higher flow score, suggesting the capital picture is more nuanced. BTC-USD is seeing above-average volume (1.3x), adding conviction to its flow signal.
Trend & Risk
COIN
BTC-USD
| Metric | COIN | BTC-USD | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Volatility (21d) | +113.1% | +53.2% | BTC-USD |
| Max Drawdown (1Y) | -66.4% | -49.7% | BTC-USD |
| Beta | 1.06 | — | — |
| Correlation (63d) | 0.74 | — | |
Both assets show similar trend momentum (35/100 vs 34/100), indicating neither has a clear directional edge. COIN carries a better risk profile (35/100 vs 14/100), with lower overall risk metrics. COIN is 2.1x more volatile than BTC-USD on a 21-day basis (113.1% vs 53.2%), which means larger price swings in either direction. COIN has experienced a deeper maximum drawdown over the past year (66.4% vs 49.7%), indicating higher tail risk.
Direction Assessment
COIN
Uptrend + capital inflow
Uptrend, weak flow
Flow in, no trend yet
Downtrend + outflow
Elevated risk
BTC-USD
Uptrend + capital inflow
Uptrend, weak flow
Flow in, no trend yet
Downtrend + outflow
High risk, poor compensation
Putting It Together
COIN is currently gaining ground against BTC-USD, with the price ratio at 0.00 versus its 50-day average of 0.00. The 200-day z-score of -0.47 is within normal bounds, suggesting BTC-USD may be stretched relative to COIN. On a flow basis, BTC-USD shows stronger capital accumulation (58 vs 43). BTC-USD carries lower short-term volatility (+53.2% vs +113.1% 21-day), with max drawdowns of -66.4% and -49.7% respectively. With a 63-day correlation of 0.74, these assets move closely together — limiting diversification benefit. Monitor the ratio trend and flow divergence for early signals of a shift in relative leadership.
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