Bitcoin vs SPDR S&P 500 ETF

The price ratio is currently below its 50-day moving average, indicating SPY has been gaining relative ground recently. The ratio is extended at -17.0% from its 50-day average, suggesting the relative move may be overdue for a pullback. The 200-day z-score of -2.11 signals an extreme deviation — the current ratio is unusually far from its long-term norm.

Performance is mixed — SPY leads over the 63-Day timeframe while BTC-USD has been stronger in the short term (10-Day). This divergence can signal a momentum shift.

These two assets have a weak positive long-term correlation of 0.42. The short-term and long-term correlations are closely aligned at 0.55 and 0.42, indicating a stable relationship.

BTC-USD has a stronger flow score (58/100 vs 50/100), indicating more consistent accumulation pressure. However, Chaikin Money Flow tells a different story — BTC-USD shows net outflow (-0.17) despite its higher flow score, suggesting the capital picture is more nuanced. BTC-USD is seeing above-average volume (1.3x), adding conviction to its flow signal.

SPY has significantly stronger trend momentum (60/100 vs 34/100), suggesting it is in a more favourable technical position. SPY carries a better risk profile (71/100 vs 14/100), with lower overall risk metrics. BTC-USD is 4.2x more volatile than SPY on a 21-day basis (53.2% vs 12.6%), which means larger price swings in either direction. BTC-USD has experienced a deeper maximum drawdown over the past year (49.7% vs 16.2%), indicating higher tail risk.

BTC-USD is currently losing ground against SPY, with the price ratio at 98.89 versus its 50-day average of 119.15. The 200-day z-score of -2.11 is historically extreme, suggesting SPY may be stretched relative to BTC-USD. On a flow basis, BTC-USD shows stronger capital accumulation (58 vs 50). SPY carries lower short-term volatility (+12.6% vs +53.2% 21-day), with max drawdowns of -49.7% and -16.2% respectively. With a 63-day correlation of 0.55, these assets show moderate co-movement — limiting diversification benefit. Monitor the ratio trend and flow divergence for early signals of a shift in relative leadership.