Bitcoin · BTC-USD
cryptoLast updated: February 26, 2026
Bitcoin is looking extended. Price sits 13.8% below the 50-day moving average — a level that has historically preceded consolidation or mean reversion, even within established trends. The trend is under pressure, with the Trend & Momentum Score at 34/100, indicating a developing downtrend. Flow data is inconclusive — the Flow & Accumulation Score at 58/100 shows no strong directional conviction from buyers or sellers. The Risk Profile Score at 14/100 flags that the return does not currently compensate for the volatility and drawdown risk involved.
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Where is money flowing?
VWAP: Below 50d ($78,034.16) and 200d ($99,527.03)
Money flow in Bitcoin is neutral. The Flow & Accumulation Score reads 58/100 — neither buyers nor sellers are dominating, and capital commitment is balanced. Chaikin Money Flow at -0.17 and On-Balance Volume (flat) provide a mixed picture of flow dynamics.
What is the trend?
| MA Period | Value | Price vs MA | Distance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10-day | 66,812.53 | Above | +2.0% |
| 21-day | 67,787.91 | Above | +0.6% |
| 50-day | 79,106.60 | Below | -13.8% |
| 100-day | 84,158.88 | Below | -19.0% |
| 200-day | 97,886.22 | Below | -30.4% |
The trend in Bitcoin is negative. The Trend & Momentum Score reads 34/100, with price below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages — the intermediate trend structure has broken down. Price is 30.4% below the 200-day moving average — a deep deviation from the long-term mean that reflects persistent selling pressure.
Is momentum building or fading?
Momentum signals are mixed. The 10-day rate of change reads -0.3%, the 21-day 8.7%, and the 63-day -21.9% — no clear alignment across timeframes. RSI at 44 reflects bearish momentum, though not yet at extreme levels — selling pressure is present but has not reached exhaustion. The MACD histogram remains positive despite the short-term momentum dip — the broader momentum trend has not yet shifted, though the histogram direction warrants monitoring.
How extended is this move?
Price is 13.8% below the 50-day moving average, in the 14th percentile of its historical range — meaning the asset is more stretched to the downside than it usually gets. Bollinger Band %B at 0.57 places price near the middle of its recent range — neither stretched to the upside nor oversold to the downside.
Where are the key levels?
$92,804.23 – $100,285.63
$64,557.91 – $70,092.87
The strongest support zone is $64,558 — $70,093, 2% below current price, where 6 independent signals converge — double bottom at $65,996, minor swing at $66,804, SMA-10 at $66,813, SMA-21 at $67,788, and 2 other signals. Resistance sits at $92,804 — $100,286, 42% above — double top at $94,601, major swing at $94,602, double top at $95,185, major swing at $97,861, and 5 other signals. The volume Point of Control over the past year sits at $118,089, where the most trading activity occurred — a significant level if price revisits that area. The 52-week high at $126,198 sits 85% above, with price at the 12% mark of its annual range.
How does this compare?
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What risk am I taking?
The risk profile of Bitcoin is concerning. The Risk Profile Score sits at just 14/100 — severe downside risk with little return to show for it. Position sizing should be minimal regardless of trend strength. The 1-year Sortino Ratio is negative (-1.4) — the asset has lost money on a risk-adjusted basis over the past year. Maximum drawdown hit -49.7%, and the loss profile is unfavourable.
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Direction Assessment
Confirmed uptrend with capital inflow
Uptrend without volume support
Capital flowing in, trend not yet established
Downtrend with capital outflow
High risk, poor compensation. Standard positioning appropriate.
The combined signal is neutral. With trend at 34/100 and flow at 58/100, neither dimension provides a clear directional reading — the asset is in a transitional or range-bound state. The Risk Profile Score at 14/100 sits in concerning territory — in a neutral directional environment, the risk metrics become important for sizing decisions.
Conclusion
Bitcoin is in a transitional phase. The data does not support a strong directional view — indicators are mixed, and the asset could resolve in either direction. The risk profile is the standout — at 14/100, the poor return-to-risk trade-off is the most defining characteristic for sizing decisions. These scores update daily as new data arrives. Flipside does not predict what happens next — it shows what is happening now, grounded in the data.
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