SPDR S&P 500 ETF vs iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF

The price ratio is currently below its 50-day moving average, indicating TLT has been gaining relative ground recently. The ratio is near its 50-day average, suggesting no significant relative extension. The z-score of 0.44 indicates the ratio is within its normal historical range.

Performance is mixed — SPY leads over the 63-Day timeframe while TLT has been stronger in the short term (10-Day). This divergence can signal a momentum shift.

These two assets have a near-zero long-term correlation of 0.09. The short-term and long-term correlations are closely aligned at 0.10 and 0.09, indicating a stable relationship. Low correlation suggests these assets can provide meaningful diversification in a portfolio.

TLT has a stronger flow score (71/100 vs 50/100), indicating more consistent accumulation pressure. Both assets show net inflow via Chaikin Money Flow (TLT: 0.02, SPY: 0.10), though TLT leads on overall flow score.

TLT has significantly stronger trend momentum (71/100 vs 60/100), suggesting it is in a more favourable technical position. SPY carries a better risk profile (71/100 vs 40/100), with lower overall risk metrics. SPY is 1.5x more volatile than TLT on a 21-day basis (12.6% vs 8.3%), which means larger price swings in either direction. SPY has experienced a deeper maximum drawdown over the past year (16.2% vs 9.2%), indicating higher tail risk. Their low short-term correlation (0.10) means these risk profiles are relatively independent, offering potential diversification benefit.

SPY is currently losing ground against TLT, with the price ratio at 7.64 versus its 50-day average of 7.83. The 200-day z-score of 0.44 is within normal bounds, suggesting SPY may be stretched relative to TLT. On a flow basis, TLT shows stronger capital accumulation (71 vs 50). TLT carries lower short-term volatility (+8.3% vs +12.6% 21-day), with max drawdowns of -16.2% and -9.2% respectively. With a 63-day correlation of 0.10, these assets move largely independently — offering diversification value. Monitor the ratio trend and flow divergence for early signals of a shift in relative leadership.