iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF · TLT
bondLast updated: February 26, 2026
Money flow into iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF is moderately positive. The Flow & Accumulation Score reads 71/100, with Chaikin Money Flow at 0.02 over the past 20 trading days. The broader trend remains positive, with the Trend & Momentum Score at 71/100, though not at its strongest. The Risk Profile Score sits at 40/100, reflecting a poor return-to-risk balance.
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Where is money flowing?
VWAP: Above 50d ($87.88) and 200d ($87.35)
Money flow into iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF is positive. The Flow & Accumulation Score reads 71/100, indicating steady accumulation — capital is coming in, though not at extreme levels. Chaikin Money Flow at 0.02 is marginally positive, with On-Balance Volume flat — there is no strong conviction from either buyers or sellers at present.
What is the trend?
| MA Period | Value | Price vs MA | Distance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10-day | 89.72 | Above | +0.6% |
| 21-day | 88.45 | Above | +2.1% |
| 50-day | 87.79 | Above | +2.8% |
| 100-day | 88.27 | Above | +2.3% |
| 200-day | 86.58 | Above | +4.3% |
The trend in iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF is positive. The Trend & Momentum Score reads 71/100, with price above the key 50-day and 200-day moving averages — the intermediate and long-term trend structure is intact.
Is momentum building or fading?
Momentum is positive across all timeframes — 10-day (2.5%), 21-day (3.2%), and 63-day (1.4%) rate of change are all in positive territory — though the alignment suggests the pace of gains is stabilising rather than accelerating. RSI at 68 reflects healthy bullish momentum without reaching overbought levels — there is room for further upside before the indicator signals caution. The MACD histogram is positive, confirming the momentum picture — trend strength and directional indicators are in agreement.
How extended is this move?
Price is 2.8% above the 50-day moving average — a mild extension within the normal range (87th percentile of its historical range). There is no significant stretch to flag. Within the Bollinger Bands, price sits near the upper band (%B at 0.83) — in the upper range of recent volatility, suggesting the short-term move is approaching its statistical limits.
Where are the key levels?
$92.04 – $93.44
$85.33 – $89.97
The strongest support zone is $85 — $90, 3% below current price, where 21 independent signals converge — major swing at $85, double bottom at $86, double bottom at $87, double bottom at $87, and 17 other signals. Overhead, a strong resistance cluster at $92 — $93 (3% above) needs to clear — major swing at $92, double top at $93, major swing at $93, double top at $93, and 2 other signals. The volume profile shows the highest activity around $87 (Point of Control), with the 70% value area spanning $85 to $90.
How does this compare?
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What risk am I taking?
The risk-return profile of iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF is poor. The Risk Profile Score reads 40/100 — significant risk without proportional reward. The drawdown and volatility metrics suggest this is a painful asset to hold in size. The 1-year Sortino Ratio is negative (-0.0) — the asset has lost money on a risk-adjusted basis over the past year. Maximum drawdown hit -9.2%, and the loss profile is unfavourable.
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Direction Assessment
Confirmed uptrend with capital inflow
Uptrend without volume support
Capital flowing in, trend not yet established
Downtrend with capital outflow
Average. Standard positioning appropriate.
The combined signal is strong. Both trend (71/100) and flow (71/100) are in positive territory and confirming each other — the asset is trending up with capital backing the move. However, the Risk Profile Score at 40/100 tempers the positive picture. While the trend and flow are aligned, the asset carries significant volatility and drawdown risk — the strength comes with a rough ride.
Conclusion
Across the framework, iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF presents a constructive picture. Trend, flow, and momentum indicators are broadly aligned to the upside. No single indicator is at an extreme — the readings are within normal ranges across the framework, which itself is informative. These scores update daily as new data arrives. Flipside does not predict what happens next — it shows what is happening now, grounded in the data.